Election 2024 Red Wave

Takeaways and stuff...

The U.S. elections have concluded (except for some House races that will take weeks), I’ll be eating ramen, and a new political era has begun. Republicans have taken the presidency, Senate, and are favored to take the House. Incumbent liberal to center-right governments globally have been replaced by far-right populist movements, and the U.S. joined this trend in 2024. This shift may soon reach Canada. Let’s dive into some exit poll data to explore these trends.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html

Takeaway 1: Money in Politics is Powerful

One surprising element this cycle was the difference between safe states and battleground states. With counting still in progress, projected vote shares show a heavy shift to Republicans in populous states.

Populous Blue States

New York: 12-point shift to Republicans

New Jersey: 11-point shift to Republicans

California: 12-point shift to Republicans

Populous Red States

Florida: 10-point shift to Republicans

Texas: 9-point shift to Republicans

Battleground States

Nevada: 4-point shift to Republicans

Arizona: 2-point shift to Republicans

Wisconsin: 2-point shift to Republicans

Michigan: 4-point shift to Republicans

Pennsylvania: 2-point shift to Republicans

Georgia: 4-point shift to Republicans

North Carolina: 2-point shift to Republicans

Safe blue and red states shifted more significantly than battlegrounds. In the U.S., elections hinge on six to seven battleground states, so both campaigns focus resources on these during election season. While battleground states leaned Republican, the shift was smaller. Republicans won the popular vote, gaining a mandate.

If the national environment shifted 10 points to the right but battlegrounds only moved three points, what accounted for the other seven? The answer: campaign influence. Ads, door-knocking, and town halls only take place in the six to eight battleground states, while votes in solidly aligned states are largely unaffected. Democrats held advantages in:

• Campaign funding

• Ground game operations

These are meant to shift a close race slightly in one’s favor. Democrats were, however, on the defensive in a conservative-leaning environment. This cycle demonstrates the significant impact of campaign resources, even if they couldn’t turn a loss into a win.

Takeaway 2: Policy is for Nerds and Losers

Excepting a tiny sect of Democratic nerds who are way too engaged, nobody cares about policy. Democrats often think “vibes” means focus groups or demographic targeting—e.g., we lost Latino voters, so let’s run someone who speaks fluent Spanish. Wrong. 

Donald Trump can’t speak English and he won. His policy?

• Shit’s bad; only I can fix it.

• Child care? Tariffs will solve it. 

• They’re eating the cats and dogs. I’ll deport them.

Kamala Harris got challenged for not having a clear platform. Can you name one policy that she has that differs from Joe Biden? I can’t name one policy she has period, and I actually follow this shit.

Of course, I could go look at her platform on her campaign website, but who outside of weirdos are going to do that? Is it better than tariffs for childcare? Probably, but who cares? I can name 3 of Trump’s “policies” mostly because they’re idiotic and laughable.

NOONE CARES ABOUT POLICY. Technocratic policy experts are annoying. You can run on literally anything. She lost because Americans felt like they had less money, and obviously the president controls the price of your eggs. 

If Americans are mad, you need someone like Obama to conjure up some premium grade BS to convince their them otherwise. Kamala Harris isn’t terrible or anything, but she isn’t a generational talent that can inspire millions to turn a bad hand into a full house. Basically, she lacked rizz and vibes, and that’s what it comes down to now.

If you want to run on being a dick, Trump is the perfect candidate. If you want to run on Machismo, run Hulk Hogan or The Rock. If you want to run on women’s rights, run Taylor Swift. If you want to run on compassion, run a literal rescue puppy from a shelter. Americans have the IQ of a baboon with end-stage dementia and have an intense dislike of anything that stinks of a bureaucrat. There’s a popular saying in politics: If you’re explaining, you’re losing. It’s time to update this: You can’t policy because you can’t explain to baboons.

Takeaway 3: Democrats became Elitist 

Trump gained with more or less every cross-section of the population, except black women. I’m going to focus on one group that Democrats gained with. That’s the wealthy, and it makes sense. 

Those who feel that they are doing worse economically went to Trump by a large margin. Those who feel they are doing better went to Harris. 

As the outlets like CNN will insist, the American economy is doing great as evidenced by the stock market. People who own stocks got wealthy, and people who work got expensive eggs. 

The Republicans became the de facto working class party, and electorally, that’s tough because there aren’t enough wealthy, highly educated people. Republicans did it in the past by having racist white people on their side along with the wealthy, and the religious weirdos. The Democrats can’t run their coalition on wealthy urbanites, and LGBTQ. They’re simply not populous enough. 

Takeaway 4: Apathy, Not Hate

Some argue Americans prefer a felon, a scam artist, and a rapist over a Black woman. There’s some truth here, but it’s more about apathy (hopefully).

Mark Robinson ran for Governor of North Carolina, one of the swing states in 2024. He already had several scandals - he was against women’s right to vote, wanted to shoot some people, called himself a Black Nazi, was pro-slavery, and posted about his fantasies of sleeping with relatives on a porn site called Nude Africa. It’s almost impossible to be a worse candidate than this guy.

He got more than 40% of the vote. 

At least 40% of North Carolinians believe that a black nazi who is pro-slavery and wants to end the right of women to vote is the lesser evil compared to a Democrat. If this were true, I’d never step foot in North Carolina. I believe that the average American just doesn’t give a fuck about anything.